201011.6283v1 Turning Washington´s heuristics in favor of Vandiver´s conjecture

A famous conjecture bearing the name of Vandiver states that $p \nmid h_p^+$ in the $p$ - cyclotomic extension of $\Q$. Heuristics arguments of Washington, which have been briefly exposed in \cite{La}, p. 261 and \cite{Wa}, p. 158 suggest that the Vandiver conjecture should be false if certain conditions of statistical independence are fulfilled. In t..